“万物皆可赌”的时代到来! Kalshi与Polymarket主导的“预测市场”营收有望翻五倍

Core Insights - The prediction market industry, including companies like Polymarket, is projected to grow significantly, potentially reaching over $10 billion in revenue by 2030, which is five times the current market size [1] - The current annual revenue of the prediction market industry is estimated to be around $2 billion, with platforms like Robinhood contributing approximately 10% to their revenue from prediction market activities [1] Group 1: Definition and Market Dynamics - Prediction market companies are platforms that allow trading on binary contracts related to real-world events, typically settled as "yes/no" outcomes, with prices reflecting market probabilities [2] - The involvement of major platforms like Robinhood and traditional financial institutions such as ICE and CME has enhanced the credibility and reach of the prediction market industry [2][3] - The introduction of event contracts in sports betting has attracted significant trading volume, even in states where traditional sports betting is not legal, leading to regulatory scrutiny [2] Group 2: Institutional Participation and Growth Potential - Hedge funds and traditional asset management firms are expected to participate more in prediction markets to bet on central bank policies and major corporate events [4] - The prediction market industry is compared to the early adoption of options, indicating strong growth potential as it becomes more integrated into institutional investment workflows [4][6] - The global legal gambling market is valued at approximately $100 billion, presenting a substantial business opportunity for prediction markets [4] Group 3: Advantages and Future Outlook - Prediction markets offer a direct and binary method for betting on significant economic and corporate events, which could appeal to a wide range of investors [5] - The ability to quickly launch event contracts and provide precise risk hedging makes prediction markets a compelling alternative to traditional trading platforms [5] - The future of prediction markets may involve embedding quantitative and risk management workflows, providing critical inputs for institutional investment strategies [6]