Cinda Securities(SH:601059) 智通财经网·2025-12-16 01:21Core Viewpoint - The biopharmaceutical sector is expected to experience significant performance divergence among its sub-sectors before the third quarter of 2025, with industry revenue and profit growth rates initially declining before rebounding, as the pressures from high baselines, centralized procurement, and anti-corruption measures have been largely absorbed [1] Group 1: Innovative Drugs - The commercial insurance innovation drug catalog is set to debut in 2025, which is anticipated to drive incremental payments for innovative drug products [2] - The domestic new drug development is accelerating, with lower costs and favorable macro policies, leading to a global leadership position in innovative drug development, contributing approximately one-third of the global innovative R&D pipeline by 2025 [2] - The overseas rights BD transactions are driving the revaluation of innovative drug assets, with a continuous increase in the proportion of Chinese innovative drug license-outs [2] Group 2: CXO and Life Sciences - The CXO market is witnessing improved supply-demand dynamics, with CDMO companies entering a high prosperity cycle due to strong demand for new molecules like ADCs and peptides [2] - The life sciences upstream sector is experiencing a comprehensive recovery in downstream demand, with listed companies actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions to expand [3] Group 3: AI in Healthcare - The "Artificial Intelligence+" policy is leading to widespread applications of AI in healthcare, with significant developments driven by companies like Deepseek [3] Group 4: High-end Medical Equipment - The high-end medical equipment sector is poised for growth due to domestic procurement recovery, import substitution, and accelerated international expansion [3] Group 5: Orthopedic Joint Consumables - The negative impact of centralized procurement is clearing, and the aging population is driving market expansion, with potential growth in surgical robotics [3] Group 6: Traditional Chinese Medicine - There are signs of operational improvement in traditional Chinese medicine, with factors like flu season and basic drug catalog adjustments potentially catalyzing a new market cycle [4]