徽商期货：美联储2026年或放缓降息步伐 黄金、铜等品种仍具备多头配置价值

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate, aligning with market expectations, bringing the total cuts for the year to 75 basis points, indicating a potential slowdown in rate cuts for the following year [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% marks the third consecutive cut this year, totaling 75 basis points for 2023 and 175 basis points since September of the previous year [2][3] - There was a notable internal dissent within the Federal Reserve, with three officials voting against the rate cut, indicating a higher level of disagreement regarding the extent of the cuts than previously anticipated [2][3] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Inflation - The Federal Reserve's economic outlook has become more optimistic, with GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 raised to 1.7% and 2.3% respectively, while inflation expectations have been slightly adjusted downward [4] - The core service inflation rate has decreased from 4.3% to 3.5% from January to September, suggesting a trend of easing inflation pressures, particularly influenced by the housing market [8] Group 3: Labor Market Conditions - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, the highest in four years, and a decline in private sector jobs reported [7] - The labor market's deterioration is raising the necessity for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as the overall employment situation remains fragile [7] Group 4: Future Policy Directions - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a pause in rate cuts but left the possibility of a cut in January open, emphasizing the importance of upcoming economic data [5] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may continue to lower rates in the first half of 2026, contingent on the labor market's recovery and inflation trends [9] Group 5: Global Monetary Policy Context - The global monetary policy landscape is diverging, with the Federal Reserve in a rate-cutting cycle while other major central banks are in a holding pattern, reflecting varying economic conditions and inflation outlooks [10][12] - The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair could influence future monetary policy directions, with current expectations leaning towards continued easing [10]