美联储2026年或放缓降息步伐

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points aligns with market expectations, indicating a potential slowdown in future rate cuts compared to this year [1][2][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve has cut the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, marking a total reduction of 75 basis points this year [2] - The decision faced internal dissent, with three officials voting against the rate cut, indicating a higher level of disagreement within the Fed than previously anticipated [2][3] - The Fed has also announced the end of its balance sheet reduction and the initiation of asset purchases to maintain adequate reserves, reflecting liquidity pressures in the banking system [5][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Fed's economic outlook has been adjusted, with GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 raised to 1.7% and 2.3% respectively, while inflation expectations have been slightly lowered [6] - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, the highest in four years, indicating a cooling labor market, which may increase the necessity for further rate cuts [8][10] - Core service inflation has decreased from 4.3% to 3.5%, suggesting that overall inflation levels may remain subdued [9] Group 3: Market Implications - The market is currently pricing in a cautious approach from the Fed, with expectations of potential rate cuts in early 2026, but also a possibility of pausing cuts depending on economic data [7][10] - The global monetary policy landscape is diverging, with the Fed in a rate-cutting cycle while other major central banks are on hold, reflecting varying economic conditions [12] - Risk assets, particularly equities, are expected to perform well due to improved market sentiment and liquidity conditions, despite concerns over potential bubbles in sectors like AI [14][15]