大摩预测!2050年中国将掌控超60%全球人形机器人供应链
SIASUNSIASUN(SZ:300024) Ge Long Hui·2025-12-16 02:33

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that global robot hardware sales are projected to surge from $100 billion in 2025 to $500 billion in 2030, reaching $9 trillion by 2040, and exceeding $25 trillion by 2050 [1] - The actual market size will double when including software services and maintenance revenue [1] - By 2050, it is expected that 1.4 billion robots will be sold globally, with a total operational volume of 6.5 billion robots [1] - The growth is driven by five key factors: scenario explosion, cost reduction, policy support, labor replacement, and AI empowerment [1] Group 2 - The demand for upstream components will see a significant increase, with 5.7 billion cameras needed (a 95-fold increase from 2025), 27 billion motors (a 260-fold increase), 41 billion bearings (a 200-fold increase), 1.7 million tons of rare earth magnets (a 480-fold increase), and 26 terawatt-hours of battery capacity (a 1450-fold increase) required to support the sales of 1.4 billion robots by 2050 [1] - Motor, bearing, rare earth, and AI chip suppliers are expected to experience a golden decade [2] - China is projected to account for 26% of global robot sales by 2050, with even higher market shares in industrial robots and drones [2] - Chinese companies dominate the humanoid robot supply chain with a 63% market share, particularly excelling in motors, sensors, and structural components [2]