【UNFX财经事件】停摆余波未散 非农与CPI成市场仅存锚点

Core Insights - The U.S. market is entering a sensitive macro observation window due to the prolonged government shutdown, which has disrupted the release of key employment and inflation data, leading to increased uncertainty in policy direction [1][3] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report and CPI data will be released with significant statistical gaps, complicating their interpretation and reducing their reliability as indicators of economic health [2][3] Employment Data - There is a widening divergence between employer and household surveys, with employer data remaining somewhat reliable due to electronic reporting, while household survey interruptions will lead to missing key metrics like the unemployment rate [2] - The upcoming non-farm data may need to be interpreted with caution, focusing more on trends rather than specific figures due to the lack of complete data [2] Inflation Data - The November CPI report will lack comprehensive month-over-month change information due to missing October data, making it difficult to assess inflation momentum accurately [3] - There is a risk that core inflation for November may be underestimated due to the compressed data collection window, which could lead to concentrated inflationary pressures in subsequent months [3] Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment is leaning towards defensiveness, with U.S. stock futures slightly declining and a shift of funds away from high-valuation assets [4] - Safe-haven assets like gold are performing steadily, reflecting market confidence in the medium-term policy environment despite uncertainties [4] Policy Implications - The Federal Reserve has completed its third and final rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%-3.75%, indicating a shift towards a neutral policy stance [3] - Ongoing discussions around inflation persistence, employment cooling, and the independence of policy are still prevalent, with the uncertainty surrounding the next Fed chair becoming a significant variable in market pricing [3]