惠理基金：A股及港股短期缺乏催化剂 但外资对投资中国兴趣回升

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. government shutdown has delayed economic data releases, complicating market assessments of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, which is a major factor for market volatility in November [1] - The basic scenario from 惠理基金 suggests a slowdown in the U.S. economy but a significant chance to avoid recession next year, with potential fiscal policies from the Trump administration to support the economy ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [1] - The Chinese mainland and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to lack new catalysts in the short term, leading to a range-bound market; third-quarter corporate earnings have generally fallen short of market expectations [1] Group 2 - A recovery in A-shares is anticipated to be more differentiated, with capital concentrated in sectors like AI and technology, while interest in consumer sectors remains weak [2] - Retail investors have recently withdrawn funds from savings accounts to invest, but market momentum has weakened, suggesting a continuation of consolidation and range-bound trading until new catalysts emerge [2] - North Asian stock market earnings forecasts have improved, but valuations are considered high; Southeast Asian markets remain undervalued due to political and growth concerns [3] Group 3 - Japanese stocks may benefit from a weaker yen in the short term, but valuations are approaching historical highs, influenced by geopolitical tensions affecting tourism and net exports [4] - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is expected to remain steep, making investment strategies based on duration management more challenging due to the widening fiscal deficit [5] - Asian high-yield bond prices experienced slight adjustments, but credit spreads remain well below historical averages, indicating a need for more rigorous bond selection [6] Group 4 - Gold prices are expected to rise following silver prices, supported by central bank purchases and a weak dollar, while the correlation among risk assets has increased, making stable income sources crucial for investment returns [7]