突变！泽连斯基低头妥协，美国解除制裁，美联储即将巨变

Group 1 - Ukraine's President Zelensky revealed that negotiations around the US-proposed "peace plan" have made progress, but the inclusion of Ukraine's NATO membership as a core security guarantee is not supported by the US and some European countries [1] - Zelensky emphasized that NATO membership has been Ukraine's core demand for effective security, but the lack of support from the US and Europe has led to the construction of an alternative bilateral security guarantee system [1] - Accepting a bilateral security guarantee instead of direct NATO membership is a significant compromise by Ukraine, aimed at establishing an effective mechanism to prevent future conflicts with Russia [1] Group 2 - The US special envoy Witkoff reported that significant progress was made in discussions between the US and Ukraine regarding the "peace plan" and economic agenda, with a follow-up meeting scheduled [3] - Key topics of the discussions included territorial issues, security guarantees, and the frozen assets of the Russian central bank held by the EU [3] - Zelensky's shift in attitude is influenced by various factors, including the severe realities on the battlefield and comments from former US President Trump regarding Russia's advantageous position [3] Group 3 - Belarus, a major global potash producer, had sanctions lifted by the US, which is seen as a significant boost for its economy [4][6] - The lifting of sanctions is interpreted as a potential geopolitical maneuver, with Belarusian President Lukashenko providing suggestions on resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict [6] - Analysts suggest that this move may be a test balloon from Moscow to gauge the West's willingness to lift sanctions in the context of a future peace agreement [6] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is undergoing significant changes, with a blurring of lines between the Treasury and the Fed, leading to a potential merger of their balance sheets [7] - The Fed's recent policy signals indicate a restart of asset purchases to ensure financing for Treasury expenditures, which may stabilize market fluctuations [7] - Upcoming personnel changes at the Fed, including the reappointment of regional reserve bank presidents, could reshape the decision-making core of the Federal Open Market Committee [9] Group 5 - Gold prices have shown strong performance, with significant inflows into physical gold ETFs, reflecting market sentiment amid geopolitical and financial changes [12] - The recent Fed interest rate cut has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, supporting its price [12] - Anticipation of upcoming US non-farm payroll data is expected to have limited impact on gold prices, as the market has already priced in the Fed's recent actions [12]