邓正红能源软实力：全球供应过剩担忧叠加地缘缓和潜在影响 原油市场震荡走低

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of global supply surplus concerns and potential peace agreements between Russia and Ukraine on oil prices, highlighting a decline in international oil prices as a result of these factors [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On December 15, international oil prices fell, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil settling at $56.82 per barrel, down 1.08%, and Brent crude oil at $60.56 per barrel, down 0.92% [1]. - The decline in oil prices is attributed to market concerns over supply surplus and the ongoing peace negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine, which may pressure Ukraine to make territorial concessions [1][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global oil market is currently experiencing a significant supply surplus, with the International Energy Agency predicting a surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day by 2025, increasing to 3.8 million barrels per day by 2026 [2]. - OPEC's core eight countries increased production by 160,000 barrels per day in November, totaling a cumulative increase of 2.25 million barrels per day since April [2]. Group 3: Impact of U.S. Sanctions on Venezuela - Recent U.S. sanctions against Venezuela, including the seizure of an oil tanker and sanctions on shipping companies, have led to a significant decline in Venezuelan oil exports, which now average about 921,000 barrels per day [3]. - The sanctions are seen as a restructuring of global energy trade rules, reinforcing U.S. dominance in the market [3]. Group 4: Theoretical Framework - The article applies Deng Zhenghong's soft power theory to analyze oil price fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of rules and expectations in the energy market [4]. - The theory suggests that the dynamics between supply surplus and market expectations create a negative feedback loop that exacerbates price declines [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Future oil price trends will depend on the progress of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, the intensity of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, OPEC's production policies, and the sustainability of global economic recovery [4].