就在今晚！非农报告罕见“二合一”发布，失业率存飙升可能

Economic Data Release - The upcoming non-farm payroll report for November is set to be released on Tuesday at 9:30 PM Beijing time, amidst a flurry of economic data including retail sales and inflation reports [2] - The November non-farm payroll is expected to show an increase of 50,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate projected to reach 4.4% [2][7] Impact of Government Shutdown - The report will include data from October, as the Labor Statistics Bureau could not collect unemployment data for that month due to the government shutdown [4] - Economists predict that the October employment numbers may show a decline due to the Deferred Resignation Program affecting government workers, with estimates suggesting a loss of 70,000 jobs in October and a further decrease of 10,000 jobs in November [4][5] Employment Trends - Despite the potential negative impact from the government shutdown, most economists expect a positive job growth in November, with predictions ranging from a decrease of 20,000 to an increase of 127,000 jobs [4] - The healthcare and private education sectors are anticipated to drive job growth in November [4] Unemployment Rate Insights - Although the October unemployment rate will not be published, the November rate is expected to be around 4.4%, with some forecasts suggesting it could rise to 4.5% or even 4.6% due to federal employment declines [7][8] Additional Economic Indicators - The internal details of the establishment and household surveys will provide critical insights into the performance of various sectors in the U.S. economy [8] - Economists are particularly focused on employment growth in the goods-related sectors, while healthcare and possibly the restaurant industry are expected to continue leading job growth [8] Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - The U.S. Department of Commerce will also release October retail sales data, with a modest growth forecast of 0.1% [9] - The upcoming consumer price index (CPI) report for November will be affected by the government shutdown, leading to a focus on year-over-year indicators for inflation signals [9]