US tariffs are having an uneven effect on holiday prices and purchases

Core Insights - The holiday shopping season is facing challenges due to high tariffs on imported goods, leading to increased prices and cautious consumer spending [1][4][20] - Consumers are opting for less expensive gift options, with a notable decrease in estimated gift budgets [2][5][20] - Despite initial fears, the worst-case impact of tariffs on consumer prices has not fully materialized, although certain categories have seen significant price increases [6][20] Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable shift in consumer behavior, with many choosing lower-priced items, such as a $100 gift basket instead of a $150 one [2][4] - A Gallup index indicates a decline in consumer confidence, reaching a 17-month low, with gift budgets decreasing by $229 from October to November [5][20] Product Categories Affected - Games and Toys: Prices for toys have increased by 5% to 20% due to tariffs, with some items seeing price hikes from $20-$25 to $30-$35 [7][8][20] - Electronics: In 2023, China accounted for 78% of U.S. smartphone imports and 79% of laptop imports, with companies like Best Buy adjusting their inventory to cater to lower-income shoppers [9][10][20] - Jewelry: Price increases are more influenced by rising gold prices than tariffs, although tariffs on imports from countries like Switzerland and India are expected to affect prices in the future [12][14][20] - Holiday Decorations: Tariffs have slowed production and increased prices for holiday decor items, with some products seeing price increases from $8.95 to $10.95 [15][16][20] Strategic Shopping Recommendations - Consumers are advised to explore secondhand stores and discount retailers to avoid tariff-related price increases, as these stores often have inventory that predates the tariffs [17][20] - Domestically produced goods such as books, food, and beverages are suggested as good gift options to mitigate the impact of tariffs [18][20]