施罗德投资：预期美国经济将“软着陆” 相对偏好欧美投资级信贷

Group 1 - The likelihood of a "soft landing" for the US economy is currently assessed at 60%, with risks of "no landing" and "hard landing" now viewed as balanced, a shift from previous leanings towards "hard landing" [1] - Schroders maintains a preference for investment-grade bonds in Europe and the US, but finds US investment-grade bond valuations unattractive, while being less optimistic about high-yield bonds in both regions [1] - The macroeconomic outlook and views on global duration and major fixed income sub-asset classes have not changed significantly in November due to uncertainty [1] Group 2 - Overall government bond yields are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range until clearer indications of the US economy's response to federal government shutdown impacts emerge, maintaining a relatively neutral stance on interest rate risk [2] - Despite ongoing fiscal challenges in the US and significant questions regarding the legality of tariffs affecting revenue, a preference for short-term bonds is retained in fixed income portfolios [2] - Consumer demand in the US may remain slightly weak in the coming months, with factors such as declining auto sales contributing to this trend [2] Group 3 - The UK economy shows signs of cooling, including a weak labor market and slower growth, which, along with optimism surrounding the upcoming budget announcement, supports the performance of UK government bonds [3] - Market confidence in the UK's commitment to fiscal rules and building a larger fiscal buffer is evident, although execution risks for long-term government bonds remain high [3] - In the Eurozone, views on "sub-core markets" have become less pessimistic, while France's relatively weak fiscal situation may resurface by 2026, though it currently appears manageable [3]