Core Viewpoint - Xiaocaiyuan (00999) is recognized as a leading player in the rapidly growing domestic convenient Chinese dining sector, emphasizing healthy and affordable meals since its establishment in 2013. The company successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange by the end of 2024 and has a strong management team with a mature internal training system, leading to an initial "Buy" rating from Huayuan Securities [1]. Industry Overview - The convenient Chinese dining sector is expected to grow faster than the overall Chinese dining market. The chain penetration rate in this sector is lower than the average for Chinese dining, indicating significant growth potential. The total revenue of the Chinese dining market increased from 42,716 billion to 52,890 billion from 2018 to 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4%. The Chinese dining market accounted for 77.1% of the total dining market in 2023. The convenient Chinese dining market, with an average spending of less than 100 yuan, represented 88.7% of the Chinese dining market in 2023, with a CAGR of 3.8% from 2018 to 2023. It is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.1% from 2023 to 2028, surpassing the overall Chinese dining market growth of 8.7%. The penetration rate of chain restaurants in the Chinese dining market was 21.5% in 2023, significantly lower than the 60.1% in the U.S. and 52.4% in Japan. In the convenient Chinese dining sector, the chain restaurant share was only 19.2%, expected to rise to 25.5% by 2028 [2]. Brand Strength - Xiaocaiyuan focuses on new Huizhou cuisine and held the largest market share in the convenient Chinese dining sector in 2023. The company offers freshly prepared, healthy dishes with a seasonal menu that caters to diverse consumer preferences. The average dining expenditure per customer in the first half of 2025 was 57.1 yuan, with Xiaocaiyuan holding a 0.2% market share in the convenient Chinese dining sector (spending between 50-100 yuan) [3]. Channel Strength - Xiaocaiyuan primarily generates revenue from dine-in services, with a focus on direct chain operations, mainly in the Yangtze River Delta region. As of the first half of 2025, the company operated 672 direct Xiaocaiyuan outlets, with dine-in revenue accounting for 61% and takeout for 39%. The takeout revenue has been increasing since 2021, becoming a key driver of revenue growth. The current store density is low, indicating significant expansion potential. In Jiangsu Province, the store density is 3.1 per million residents, compared to McDonald's 7.13 per million. If Xiaocaiyuan achieves half of McDonald's density, it could reach 3,769 stores. The average investment payback period for Xiaocaiyuan stores is approximately 13.8 months, shorter than the industry average of over 18 months. The company expects an average annual revenue of over 8 million yuan per store, with an operating profit margin close to 20% [4]. Supply Chain Capability - Xiaocaiyuan has established a comprehensive supply chain system, including a central kitchen and warehouse, supported by a self-owned transportation fleet of over 200 vehicles. This enables the company to procure quality ingredients at favorable prices and implement effective cost control strategies. The company is also enhancing its IT system to improve operational efficiency [5]. Talent Management - Xiaocaiyuan has a well-structured talent management and training process, with 90.4% of current shareholders having risen from grassroots employees. All regional managers and most store managers and head chefs are promoted from within, ensuring a motivated workforce [7]. Profit Forecast - Xiaocaiyuan is expected to achieve significant revenue growth due to its strong supply chain and standardized operations. The company forecasts revenues of 5.557 billion, 6.514 billion, and 7.445 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.66%, 17.22%, and 14.31%, respectively. The projected net profit for the same period is 749 million, 892 million, and 1.011 billion yuan, with growth rates of 29.02%, 19.01%, and 13.43%. The current price-to-earnings ratios are estimated at 14, 11, and 10 times, respectively, compared to a comparable company average of 32.60 times for 2025 [8].
华源证券：首次覆盖小菜园(00999)予“买入”评级 大众便民餐饮领头羊