从经营状况来看，小菜园5月同店回正（此前口径更正），6月并未受到"禁酒令"影响，保持持续修复， 下半年预计同店持平或微涨。 踏入2025年，餐饮行业的"激烈生存战"仍在持续，但另一方面，部分餐饮龙头的经营韧性也进一步凸 显，提供出较好的结构性机会。大众便民餐饮龙头小菜园便是值得留意的一位。 近日，小菜园股价表现一度强势，同时引发东吴证券、华泰证券等多家机构的关注和看好。 其中，华泰证券的交流纪要更以最新视角揭示了小菜园的基本面优化，为市场认知小菜园的价值潜力提 供充分的依据。 我们具体梳理核心看点如下： 1）短期：同店修复、盈利提升，单店效率与门店数量并进 根据国内门店空间测算，保守预计小菜园能够再开2000-3000家，市占率仍有提升空间。同时，小菜园 愿景还是"有华人的地方就有小菜园"，国内门店规模达到3000家后将重点发力海外，也预计今年落地香 港。 在此基础上，小菜园同样将菜手视为核心品牌，将通过建设菜手卡位社区食堂潜力方向，当前菜手已开 4家店，已逐步形成稳健的单店盈利模式。 同时，小菜园追求长期主义，进一步夯实股东回报可期。 比如，这体现在小菜园内部激励体制较优，构筑组织力的深厚护城河，锻造持续创 ...

小菜园 20250624 摘要 小菜园定位家常菜，客单价 50-60 元，低于上市正餐品牌，门店集中于 江浙沪皖，并向华北、华南扩张。高复购率是其重要特点，单城市开店 数量达到六七十家时，熟客占比可达 70%~80%。 小菜园 2024 年营收 52.1 亿元，净利润 5.8 亿元，拥有 667 家门店。 2022 年至今处于快速扩张期，每年净新增门店超过 120 家，预计今年 继续保持，受益于中餐标准化提升趋势。 中式正餐同店销售额普遍下滑，小菜园 2024 年同店销售额下降 10%~12%，但加速开店，优化成本结构，降低租金和人力成本，维持 竞争力和客户粘性，实现较高净利率。 小菜园新门店投资约 130 万元，年化销售额约 750 万元，净利率 18%~20%，每年贡献 100 万到 150 万元净利润。回本周期约一年， 在直营餐饮门店中稀缺，促使其持续开设新店。 小菜园坚持全直营模式，保证品牌品质和老客群体。通过成长、薪酬和 股权激励员工，总股本 85%分配给员工持股平台，截止 2024 年底，共 130 名员工获得股权。 Q&A 小菜园在当前新消费浪潮下的定位和发展策略是什么？ 小菜园是一家定位于大众 ...

点击蓝字，关注我们 今日上午港股 1.巨子生物 (02367) 再跌逾4%， 成分争议发酵（可复美胶原蛋白含量遭质疑），高盛下调2025-27年盈测 9-12%，叠加天猫618排名跌至第16位拖累情绪。 2. 小菜园 (00999) 涨超9%， 7534万股解禁存仓华泰香港（市值6.48亿港元），东吴证券首予"买入"评 级，看好年化19%门店增速+供应链优势。 3. 先声药业 (02096) 涨超3%， 修订BCMA抗体授权协议：提高监管里程碑付款，降低特许权使用费率， 取消利润调整费，新增自主生产权。 4. 华虹半导体 (01347) 再涨5% ，天风证券重申涨价逻辑：产能利用率102.7%满产，9厂远期或贡献12.8 亿美元收入（现年收20亿），转嫁关税成本可期。 5. 德翔海运 (02510) 飙涨10%创新高 ，红海危机升级：波斯湾-欧洲航线运费单周涨2.5倍，伊朗拟关闭霍 尔木兹海峡，中东股东资源助推区域航线扩张。 6. 美中嘉和 (02453) 暴跌10%， 控股股东大宗减持3280万股（套现2亿港元，占股本4.46%），叠加配股 后流动性压力引发抛售。 7. 中远海能 (01138) 涨超7% ...

美商务部拟取消在中国运营的芯片制造商的技术豁免权，机构关注国内半导体产业链。华虹半导体 (01347)涨7%，中芯国际(00981)涨4.8%。 连连数字(02598)涨8.69%，稳定币领域进展不断，公司拟于今年4季度开始申请稳定币发行。 小菜园(00999)涨超10%，公司今日迎来解禁，机构称其被显著低估。 中远海能(01138)涨2.68%，中东冲突再度升级，油运价格大幅飙升至超6万美元。 德翔海运(02510)涨超5%续创新高，全球航运市场剧烈动荡，公司发展走向全球航线布局。 智通财经APP获悉，港股恒生指数跌0.13%，跌31点；恒生科技指数无涨跌。港股早盘成交1082亿港 元。 中东紧张局势再添新变数，伊朗议会赞成关闭霍尔木兹海峡。油气+航运股早盘多数走强，中海油 （00883）涨0.67%；山东墨龙(00568)涨6.5%；中石化油服(01033)涨2.5%。 太平洋航运(02343)放量大涨超20%，公司为全球最大灵便型散货船运营商。 全周期肿瘤服务领航者佰泽医疗(02609)正式挂牌港交所，上市首日高开24.41%。午盘涨26%。 海天味业(03288)跌超7%，较招股价低近12%，公司为中 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司深度·旅游及消闲设施(HS) 小菜园（00999.HK） "好吃便宜"大众便民中餐，强激励助推强 势扩张 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4,549 | 5,210 | 6,219 | 7,572 | 9,192 | | 同比(%) | 41.58 | 14.52 | 19.37 | 21.75 | 21.39 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 532.06 | 580.62 | 709.89 | 878.47 | 1,119.39 | | 同比(%) | 123.96 | 9.13 | 22.26 | 23.75 | 27.42 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.45 | 0.49 | 0.60 | 0.75 | 0.95 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 16.40 | 15.03 | 12.29 | 9.93 | 7.80 | [Table_Tag] [T ...

【解剖大盘】 昨晚大家都在翘首以盼伊朗来个"大"的，没想到并也是个"标题党"搞出来的。恒指今天跳空往下，收盘 跌1.99%。 美联储也没有什么作为，维持利率不变，美联储官员预计未来几个月美国通胀情况将恶化，点阵图显示 在2025年年底前将降息两次，与3月份的预测一致。降息这块短期就不用想了。美债方向，中国4月在减 持，英国、日本增持。整体还算没有出现大的问题。在美联储即将公布利率决议前，美国总统特朗普再 次抨击美联储主席鲍威尔，称其"愚蠢""政治化"，且降息"太迟"。 更糟糕的是，特朗普政府正推进另一轮关税"攻势"。6月18日，据报道，美国商务部将在数周内公布针 对数个被视为对国家安全至关重要的行业的调查结果，包括芯片、制药和关键矿产。如根据232条款采 取的最新举措是，上周商务部宣布，50%的钢铝产品关税范围将扩大，涵盖包括洗碗机、烘干机和洗衣 机等家用电器。剩余七项正在进行的调查预计也将采取类似做法。尤其是药品关税将"很快"出台，将鼓 励企业把生产转移回美国。因此，近期医药股均跌幅较大，如君实生物(01877)再度跌超7%。 在今天(19日)商务部举行的例行发布会上，新闻发言人何亚东谈到稀土相关出口问题时 ...

摘要 小菜园 20250611 大众便民中式餐饮在疫情后展现出较强韧性，占据餐饮市场主导地位， 并有望持续扩大市场份额，为标准化、规模化的连锁餐饮集团如小菜园 带来发展机遇。 小菜园通过标准化单店模型、一年左右回本周期、规模化集中采购、自 建中央厨房等运营模式，构建了大型餐饮集团的运营基础。 小菜园实施师徒制培养和股权激励等激励机制，将员工利益与门店经营 业绩深度绑定，有效提高员工工作热情和门店运营效率。 小菜园以极致性价比为品牌定位，使其具备全国市场适应能力和广阔的 开店空间，计划 2025 年新增 120 家门店，并扩建中央厨房以支持未来 扩张。 小菜园外卖渠道占比较高，2025 年已达 39%，高于同行平均水平，显 示其在数字化运营方面的优势。 预计小菜园 2025 年利润可达 7.03 亿人民币，按照 20 倍 PE 估值，目 标市值可达 140 亿人民币，有 50%以上增长空间，具备较好的估值性 价比。 小菜园维持较高分红比例，2024 年分红比例为 65%，股息率约 5%， 为投资者提供稳定的回报。 Q&A 餐饮行业近年来发生了哪些变化？小菜园如何应对这些变化？ 疫情放开后，由于餐饮行业进入门槛较 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][12][14]. Core Insights - The company, Xiaocaiyuan, is a representative brand of popular and affordable home-style cuisine, focusing on providing high-quality service and dishes at reasonable prices. It has shown strong performance in core operating metrics and rapid store expansion, aligning well with current consumer trends in the restaurant industry [3][9][20]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 703 million, 842 million, and 1,003 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [3][12]. Company Overview - Xiaocaiyuan is a leader in the popular and affordable Chinese dining sector, dedicated to developing traditional and innovative Huizhou cuisine. The core team has extensive experience in the restaurant industry, contributing to the company's strong market positioning [9][20]. - As of 2024, the company operates 667 stores in a pure franchise model, with a steady expansion trend. Its affordable delivery service has gained consumer recognition, becoming a significant driver of revenue growth [9][10][20]. Industry Analysis - The restaurant industry is experiencing a recovery, with the popular and affordable Chinese dining market showing significant growth potential. The market structure is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape, with a dominant share of products priced below 100 yuan [10][54]. - The industry has undergone significant changes, with a rise in capital and entrepreneurs entering the market, leading to increased competition and a higher chain rate. The market is expected to rebound in 2025 due to policy incentives and the deepening of delivery habits [10][54]. Operational Efficiency - The company has enhanced its operational capabilities through standardized processes and digital empowerment, which have improved management efficiency and cost optimization. The single-store model is highly competitive, and the company has significant room for expansion [11][12][21]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.34% in revenue from 2021 to 2024, with a CAGR of 36.79% in net profit attributable to shareholders during the same period [44][49].

Core Viewpoint - The community has transformed the issue of residents illegally cultivating vegetables on public green spaces into a shared garden initiative, fostering community engagement and improving neighborhood relations [2][4]. Group 1: Problem Identification - The North Chen Fudi community in Chaoyang District faces challenges with residents illegally occupying green spaces for vegetable gardening, leading to environmental issues and increased neighborhood conflicts [1]. - The community has a large area of 5000 square meters of green space, which has been neglected due to the property management's financial difficulties, resulting in some areas becoming barren and overrun with private gardens [1]. Group 2: Solution Implementation - The community decided to create a shared garden on the previously neglected land, converting individual vegetable plots into a collectively managed space, and established a volunteer service program for garden caretakers [2]. - A 500 square meter area was repurposed into a shared garden, with residents participating in its maintenance and management, which helped alleviate environmental issues such as odors and pests [2]. Group 3: Community Engagement - The initiative has led to the formation of a 20-member volunteer team, enhancing community involvement and responsibility for the garden's upkeep [2]. - Various community activities, such as a "Parent-Child Garden Festival," have been organized to promote interaction among residents and foster a sense of community [2]. Group 4: Future Plans - The community aims to restore the shared garden back to its original green space status, with residents now supportive of this transition after experiencing the benefits of the shared garden [2][4]. - Plans include improving soil quality and management practices to ensure the sustainability of the restored green areas [2].

Core Viewpoint - Green Tea Restaurant has successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange after multiple attempts, but faces challenges in a competitive market where its once-popular offerings have become commonplace [2][22]. Financial Performance - In 2022, 2023, and 2024, Green Tea Group's revenue was approximately 2.375 billion RMB, 3.589 billion RMB, and 3.838 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits of about 16.58 million RMB, 296 million RMB, and 350 million RMB [3][4]. - The adjusted net profits for the same years were approximately 25.22 million RMB, 303 million RMB, and 361 million RMB [3]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, restaurant operating income was approximately 3.099 billion RMB, a slight increase of 1.3% from 2023, while takeaway business revenue grew significantly by 39.8% to about 723 million RMB, accounting for 18.8% of total revenue [4][5]. Customer Metrics - The average customer spending decreased from 62.9 RMB in 2022 to 56.2 RMB in 2024, and the overall table turnover rate declined from 3.3 times in 2023 to 3 times in 2024 [6][7]. Market Performance - Green Tea's same-store sales fell by 10.3% in 2024, with declines across various regions, including a 12.6% drop in Guangdong and an 11.2% drop in East China [9]. - The company ranks third in terms of restaurant count and fourth in revenue among casual Chinese restaurant brands in mainland China, holding only 0.7% market share [9]. IPO and Investment - The IPO raised approximately 87.33 million USD, with significant investments from cornerstone investors including Ziyuan Foods and Zhengda Foods [9][11]. - The funds will be used to expand the restaurant network, establish central food processing facilities, and upgrade IT systems [11]. Expansion Plans - Green Tea plans to open 563 new stores from 2025 to 2027, with a focus on second and third-tier cities, which will account for 68.38% of the new openings [26]. - The company aims to build a self-operated central food processing facility to supply 90% of semi-finished products to its restaurants [26]. Industry Context - The casual Chinese restaurant market in mainland China is projected to reach a total revenue of 534.7 billion RMB in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.2% expected from 2024 to 2029 [24].