Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-16 06:28Core Viewpoint - Vanke, once a leader in the real estate industry, is facing an unprecedented debt repayment crisis due to an upcoming domestic bond maturity, specifically the "22 Vanke MTN004" bond, which amounts to 2 billion yuan [1]. Group 1: Debt Situation - The bond, originally due on December 15, 2025, requires Vanke to repay 2 billion yuan in principal along with the final year's interest [1]. - Vanke's liquidity is tightening amid an overall downturn in the real estate sector, compounded by reduced financial support from its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro [1]. - Vanke proposed three different extension plans to negotiate with creditors, all of which ultimately failed to gain approval [1]. Group 2: Proposed Plans - The first plan simply proposed a one-year extension of the repayment period with a maintained interest rate of 3%, lacking additional guarantees, which creditors deemed insufficient [1]. - The second and third plans included a credit enhancement mechanism with a guarantee from Shenzhen state-owned assets, providing some security for creditors [2]. - The second plan received 83.4% approval from voting rights, a notably high percentage, but failed to meet the 90% threshold required for enactment [4]. Group 3: Consequences of Failure - If Vanke cannot secure the remaining 7% of voting rights support within the five working days following December 15, it will face unavoidable default, marking its first domestic public debt default [6]. - This default could trigger cross-default clauses, potentially leading to demands for early repayment of other outstanding debts, resulting in a repayment pressure of hundreds of billions of yuan [7]. - A full default may necessitate debt restructuring, which would preserve the company's operational status and listing while addressing its debt issues [9]. Group 4: Importance of Negotiation - The next five working days are critical for Vanke, as successful negotiations could alleviate liquidity pressures, while failure could lead to a chain reaction of defaults and significant impacts on the company's reputation and market confidence [11].