中金2026年银行业展望：关注股息率的高低以及确定性

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has entered a stage of high-quality development, with a focus on high dividend investments becoming a primary paradigm. The absolute and relative performance of bank stocks is expected to remain favorable, driven by allocation demand and increasing market recognition of their high dividend characteristics [1]. Group 1: Performance Outlook - The performance characteristics of listed banks in 2026 are expected to show steady progress, with projected revenue growth rates of +2.5% and +3.6% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, and net profit growth rates of +1.9% and +2.6% [2]. - The improvement in revenue and profit growth rates is attributed to several factors, including a narrowing net interest margin, a shift towards quality over quantity in credit issuance, stabilization in fee income growth, and a stable or improving trend in net non-performing loan generation rates [2]. - The acceleration of supply-side reforms in the banking industry is anticipated, characterized by a rapid decrease in the number of bank licenses, leading to improved competition and operational dynamics [2]. Group 2: Regulatory and Market Dynamics - The domestic market is influenced by various regulatory policies, with the development of inclusive finance entering a new phase. The focus has shifted from the quantity of customers to the quality of product service experience [3]. - It is expected that the growth rate of credit and social financing balances will slightly slow down by 2026, with an increasing proportion of exposure to interest rate bonds [3].