中银国际：汽车行业明年稳内需基调明确 出口增长或胜预期

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports indicates that while wholesale passenger car volumes saw a slight increase both year-on-year and month-on-month in November, terminal retail sales continued to decline since October, leading to a further rise in inventory [1] - The company anticipates that the year-on-year decline in retail sales may further widen in December due to the base effect from last year and tightening of new policies, but believes that the current retail data does not accurately reflect consumer purchasing intentions and demand [1] - The company expresses confidence that if the optimization of the "two new" policies is implemented quickly, the lack of a year-end "tail effect" could benefit the automotive market's performance at the beginning of next year [1] Group 2 - The company reports that passenger car exports in November increased by 48.7% year-on-year to 624,000 units, significantly exceeding expectations, and forecasts a continuation of strong export growth next year [1] - Concerns from some investors regarding potential negative impacts on passenger car exports due to tariffs and trade barriers are noted, but the company believes that Chinese brands have quickly adapted to changes in export models, regions, and methods, leading to a rebound in export volumes since mid-year [1] - The company projects that total passenger car sales for the year will grow by 10% year-on-year, surpassing 30 million units for the first time, with exports expected to increase by over 20% to 6 million units [2] - Looking ahead to next year, the company expects the industry to demonstrate resilience under supportive policies and a focus on expanding domestic demand, with a dual drive from "export leadership" and "domestic demand upgrade" [2] - The automotive industry may enter a phase of systematic and organized deep rectification as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan," promoting supply-demand balance through policy-driven capacity clearance and self-regulation in the market [2]