当心数据陷阱！美国“残缺版”非农与CPI即将来袭

Core Insights - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release a combined non-farm payroll report for October and November, but key details, including the October unemployment rate, will be missing due to the government shutdown, marking the first time since 1948 that such data will not be published [1][2] Non-Farm Payroll Report - The October employment report has been canceled, but the non-farm employment numbers and other details will be included in the November report [1] - The non-farm payroll report is based on two surveys, which typically occur during the week that includes the 12th of the month [1] - Employers continued to submit responses electronically during the government shutdown, allowing the BLS to calculate October's non-farm employment numbers [2] - Economists predict that the non-farm employment numbers for November will increase by 50,000 jobs, following an increase of 119,000 jobs in September [2] Unemployment Rate - Due to the lack of a household survey in October, there will be no unemployment rate report for that month, which is unprecedented since the data series began [2] - The unemployment rate for November is projected to be 4.4%, unchanged from September [3] Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report - The BLS will not release the overall CPI or core CPI for October due to the inability to collect necessary data during the shutdown [5] - The agency indicated that the number of indices that can be published for October will be very limited, and specific guidance for data users regarding the missing data will not be provided [5] - Goldman Sachs warned that the volatility of the CPI series may increase, as price collection in the latter half of November could lead to lower price readings due to holiday sales [5]