新势力“复活”背后的“危险游戏”

Core Viewpoint - The revival of previously deemed "out of the game" electric vehicle manufacturers in China is creating a false sense of hope, but many lack core technological advancements and are resorting to low-cost strategies, leading to a pessimistic outlook for their future [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current revival trend is characterized by many brands entering the mid-to-low-end market, which may exacerbate structural contradictions and trigger vicious price competition [3][4]. - Companies like WM Motor and Neta are focusing on the 100,000 to 200,000 yuan price range, which could force R&D-focused firms to lower prices and deplete resources [3][4]. - The revival of low-efficiency production capacities is hindering the natural market elimination process, potentially leading to a "large but weak" competitive landscape in the Chinese EV industry [3][4]. Group 2: Debt and Financial Risks - Many of the reviving brands are burdened with significant historical debts, and funds acquired through restructuring are often used for debt repayment rather than innovation [4][5]. - For instance, WM Motor's restructuring plan indicates that a portion of its debt will be settled through new debt, perpetuating a cycle of financial instability [4][5]. - This "debt-for-debt" model is transferring operational risks to suppliers, who are already suffering from previous bankruptcies [4][5]. Group 3: Governance Issues - The revival efforts have not addressed the governance failures that led to initial failures, such as chaotic management and decision-making errors [5][6]. - Companies like HiPhi and Zeekr are experiencing governance disputes that hinder their restructuring processes, further complicating their operational stability [5][6]. - The ongoing turmoil in management and ownership is disrupting competitive order and making it difficult for these companies to establish stable business strategies [5][6]. Group 4: Innovation Deficiency - A common issue among these reviving brands is the lack of technological and business model innovation, continuing a trend of prioritizing financing over R&D [6][7]. - WM Motor's development plan lacks substantial details on technological upgrades, indicating a reliance on outdated strategies [6][7]. - The trend of "money-grabbing restructuring" misleads market expectations and distorts industry valuation, making it harder for innovative small and medium enterprises to secure funding [6][7]. Group 5: Industry Recommendations - To address the challenges posed by the revival trend, stakeholders should encourage a return to high-quality development, including improving market exit mechanisms to prevent resource wastage by "zombie companies" [7]. - Investment institutions should focus on long-term value and allocate funds to companies with core technologies, while supply chain partners need to establish better risk assessment systems [7]. - The essence of market competition should be based on survival of the fittest rather than cyclical dominance, urging struggling companies to accept market realities and allow resources to flow to more innovative firms [7].