韩国吹响货币保卫战号角！养老基金“上前线” 启动灵活对冲机制

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean government is transforming the National Pension Service (NPS) into a proactive player in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the weakening won, which is nearing a 16-year low against the dollar [1][2]. Group 1: NPS's Role and Strategy - The NPS, one of the largest pension funds globally with approximately $542 billion in overseas assets, will adopt more flexible hedging strategies to support currency stability amid a significant outflow of foreign investment and a sharp depreciation of the won [1][3]. - The NPS has extended its $65 billion foreign exchange swap agreement with the Bank of Korea until the end of 2026, allowing it to manage dollar demand more effectively and reduce direct market impact [2][4]. - The NPS plans to adjust its strategic and tactical hedging asset ratio to about 15% of its global asset allocation, utilizing various methods, including selling dollar forward contracts [2][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Pressures - The South Korean government faces urgent pressure to support the won, especially with a commitment to invest $350 billion in the U.S., which could exacerbate the currency's decline if not managed properly [2][3]. - Factors such as foreign capital outflows, increased overseas asset allocation by residents and institutions, and corporate dollar demand are driving the need for a more robust currency stabilization strategy [3][4]. - The NPS's involvement is seen as a way to signal stronger market stability and reduce reliance on direct intervention by the central bank, which has limited monetary policy flexibility due to a weak won and housing price volatility [3][4]. Group 3: Hedging Framework and Market Impact - The NPS's new flexible hedging framework may allow for adjustments beyond the previously set 10% limit on foreign currency asset hedging, depending on market conditions [4][6]. - Economists suggest that a more dynamic management of the hedging ratio could significantly enhance the NPS's impact on stabilizing the won, particularly if it can respond more quickly to fluctuations in the exchange rate [6]. - The NPS's actions, including selling dollars to support the won, are critical as the currency approaches its weakest level since 2009, with the exchange rate hovering around 1,472 won per dollar [5][6].