Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-16 07:21Core Viewpoint - The report by Guotai Junan indicates that the scale of wealth management has surpassed 30 trillion yuan, accounting for 18.8% of the large asset management market, and is accelerating towards a path of standardized development [1] Group 1: Wealth Management Scale and Market Position - As of Q3 2025, the total number of wealth management products reached 43,900, a year-on-year increase of 10%; the existing scale is 32.13 trillion yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year, with an increase of 2.18 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year [1] - Wealth management companies' management scale reached 29.28 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, with a market share increase of 3.3 percentage points to 91.1% compared to the beginning of the year; 14 wealth management companies have a scale exceeding 1 trillion yuan, with the top four being China Merchants Bank, Xinyu Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank, and XinYin Wealth Management [2] Group 2: Investment Preferences and Risk Appetite - The proportion of bond investments in wealth management is continuously declining, while the share of high liquidity assets and public funds is increasing; as of Q3 2025, over 90% of equity investments in wealth management are in preferred stocks, with stock investment scale remaining stable year-on-year for 2024-2025 [3] - Public fund investments are primarily in bond funds, with bond and money market funds accounting for over 90%; the proportion of equity and mixed funds has shown a declining trend from Q4 2023 to Q2 2025, but rebounded in Q3 2025, particularly for equity funds [3] Group 3: Future Income Contributions and Market Conditions - Most banks that established wealth management companies will end their adjustment period by 2025, with future contributions to wealth management income expected to be positive, stable, and predictable; the overall wealth management income saw a sharp decline of 43.2% year-on-year in 2023, but the decline is expected to narrow to 2.7% in 2024 [4] - The average fixed management fee rate for wealth management products has decreased from 0.21% in January 2023 to the current 0.16%, with some banks implementing "zero fee" promotions for certain products starting Q4 2024; compared to bond funds, the median management fee, sales fee, and custody fee for wealth management products are significantly lower [5] - The continuation of favorable equity market conditions may enhance the upward elasticity of wealth management floating management fee income, as some bank wealth management products include floating management fee clauses [5]