年内翻倍！3天涨12%！昔日"贵金属之王"高光回归

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market in 2025 is experiencing significant price increases, with gold, silver, and copper reaching historical highs, and platinum making a notable comeback due to a fundamental restructuring of supply and demand dynamics [1][2] Group 1: Price Trends - Gold, silver, and copper prices have collectively reached historical highs for the first time since 1980, with silver increasing over 120% year-to-date and platinum rising nearly 105% [1] - Platinum's price surge is attributed to a combination of factors, including a supply shortage and increased demand from both traditional and emerging sectors [1][2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Global platinum supply is expected to decline by 6% in 2025, reaching a five-year low of 120.3 tons, due to a lack of new mining projects and operational challenges in major producing countries like South Africa and Russia [1] - South Africa's mining sector is facing multiple crises, including extreme weather and power shortages, which have led to a 13% year-on-year decline in platinum group metal production in the first quarter of 2025 [1] Group 3: Demand Drivers - The automotive sector remains the largest source of platinum demand, accounting for 38% of total demand, with a projected 8% increase in 2025 due to accelerated platinum-palladium substitution and a recovery in fuel vehicle policies [1] - Emerging sectors such as hydrogen energy and AI are expected to drive long-term growth in platinum demand, with hydrogen fuel cell vehicles projected to require significant amounts of platinum as production ramps up [1] Group 4: Investment and Consumption Trends - China has become the largest platinum consumer market, with a 140% year-on-year increase in platinum bar demand in Q1 2025, surpassing North America [1] - The introduction of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to increase ETF holdings significantly, further stimulating demand and price increases [1][2] Group 5: Macroeconomic Influences - The combination of loose monetary policy and geopolitical risks is amplifying platinum's price elasticity, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a loose stance into 2026 [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are increasing uncertainties around platinum exports, further impacting market dynamics [2]