12月15金价：大家要有心理准备了，接下来，或将重演19年历史了

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a historic surge, with prices reaching 1353 CNY per gram on December 15, 2025, compared to 340 CNY per gram on the same day in 2019, driven by factors such as interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, global central banks' gold purchases, and escalating geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - On December 15, 2025, gold prices in China ranged from 1301 to 1353 CNY per gram, with high-end brands like Chow Tai Fook exceeding 1350 CNY [3]. - The international gold price was reported at 4304 USD per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.1% from the previous day, but down from a high of 4353 USD [3]. - In 2025, gold prices surged from 2650 USD per ounce at the beginning of the year to 4300 USD by December, marking a growth of over 60% [1][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The global central bank gold purchases reached a record level in 2025, with net purchases amounting to 254 tons by October, and total purchases exceeding 1200 tons in the first eleven months, a 15% increase year-on-year [5][7]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025 contributed to an 8% decline in the dollar index, prompting a shift of funds from bonds to gold [7]. - The geopolitical landscape, including ongoing conflicts and trade tensions, has reinforced gold's status as a safe-haven asset, leading to significant inflows into gold ETFs [9][11]. Group 3: Investment Behavior - In 2025, gold ETF inflows reached 500 tons in the first three quarters, surpassing the entire net inflow of 400 tons in 2019 [11]. - Short-term traders are adopting a cautious approach, with strategies focused on specific price ranges, while long-term investors are targeting a price range of 4900 to 5000 USD for 2026 [12][14]. - There is a noticeable shift in consumer behavior, with a 15% increase in bank gold bar sales but a 10% decrease in gold jewelry sales, indicating a preference for lower-premium investment gold bars over jewelry [14].