人形机器人的2025：一半是迷雾森林，一半是星辰大海

Core Viewpoint - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing significant investment and interest, with projections suggesting that humanoid robots could become as common as computers and smartphones in households within the next two decades. However, there are contrasting opinions regarding the feasibility and practicality of these robots, with some industry leaders expressing skepticism about their commercial viability and technological readiness [2][3][9]. Investment Trends - In the first nine months of 2025, global investments in humanoid robots reached approximately $7 billion, driven particularly by the Chinese market, marking a 250% increase compared to the same period last year [3]. - Major companies like UBTECH have reported significant order volumes, with UBTECH's cumulative order amount reaching 1.3 billion yuan [9]. Technological Challenges - The VLA (Vision-Language-Action) model, widely used in humanoid robot training, faces limitations due to the need for dynamic, three-dimensional data, which is scarce and complex to obtain [5][6]. - Critics argue that the reliance on language as an intermediary in the VLA model leads to information loss and inefficiencies, suggesting a shift towards a "World Model" that directly connects visual input to actions [8]. Market Dynamics - There is skepticism regarding the authenticity of reported large orders, with concerns that many are framework agreements or intention orders rather than binding contracts, which could lead to inflated market expectations [10][12]. - The industry is witnessing a surge in companies entering the humanoid robot space, with over 150 firms established, many of which are seeking capital to sustain operations amid unclear technological and commercial pathways [17]. Future Outlook - Despite current technological uncertainties, there is a strong belief in the potential of humanoid robots to integrate into everyday life, with predictions of significant advancements in the next few years [14][15]. - The investment return cycle for humanoid robots is expected to be short, with some analysts estimating a payback period as brief as 36 weeks, particularly in household service applications [15]. Industry Developments - Companies like Yuzhu Technology and Zhiyuan Robotics are preparing for capital market engagements, with Yuzhu Technology expected to submit an IPO application soon [16][17]. - The market for humanoid robots is showing signs of volatility, with some startups already ceasing operations, indicating potential challenges ahead for the industry [19].