年度最后非农今夜揭晓：仅增4万？市场准备好迎接降息发令枪

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is expected to show a significant slowdown in job growth, with an anticipated increase of only 40,000 jobs compared to 119,000 in September, and an unemployment rate projected to remain at a four-year high of 4.4% [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent data indicates a cooling labor market, with various indicators such as JOLTS job openings, ADP private employment, and ISM manufacturing/services employment components showing reduced labor demand [3] - The temporary federal government shutdown at the end of September to early October may have delayed hiring for some government contractors, potentially impacting November's data [3] - The latest private employment data for November shows a decline of 32,000 jobs, the largest drop in over two and a half years, primarily due to layoffs in small businesses [4] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - Job openings have risen to the highest level in five months, reaching 7.67 million, while layoffs increased to 1.85 million in October, the highest since early 2023 [4] - The average hourly wage growth is expected to be 3.6% year-over-year, reflecting a slowdown in wage growth due to a softening job market [1][7] - The number of initial jobless claims has seen the largest increase in nearly four and a half years, although this may not indicate a substantial weakening of the job market [10] Group 3: Federal Reserve Implications - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, but officials may pause further cuts while seeking clearer signals regarding the labor market and inflation [12] - A weak non-farm payroll report could significantly increase market expectations for further rate cuts in January, while unexpectedly strong data may lead the Fed to maintain a cautious approach [12] - The anticipated weak employment report could trigger a classic macro trading pattern, leading to a weaker dollar, stronger gold and U.S. Treasuries, and a structured rise in U.S. equities [13]