大豆 南美丰产预期难以撼动

Group 1: Market Trends and Price Movements - The price spread between M2601-M2605 and M2603-M2605 has significantly widened, with M3-M5 rising above 330 CNY/ton, while M1-M5 is consolidating around 250 CNY/ton [1] - The Brazilian basis remains strong, particularly for the near months, while domestic sentiment is supported by extended customs clearance times for soybeans and relatively high auction prices [1] - The recent auction of imported soybeans on December 16 is expected to maintain strong cost support, with an average transaction price of 3950 CNY, indicating a shift from concentrated to dispersed ownership of soybean rights [1] Group 2: U.S. Soybean Market Analysis - As of last Friday, U.S. soybean futures closed at 1086.14 cents/bushel, down nearly 87 cents/bushel from late November's 1172.5 cents/bushel, reflecting a lack of positive factors for U.S. soybeans [2] - The USDA's December report did not adjust the domestic supply-demand balance, and favorable weather conditions in South America suggest a high likelihood of abundant soybean production for the 2025/2026 season, putting pressure on U.S. exports [2][3] - The EPA's proposal for biofuel blending volumes for the next two years is still under consideration, with a final decision unlikely to be announced this year [2] Group 3: South American Crop Conditions - The significant drop in CBOT soybean prices has led to a stronger Brazilian basis, with a weekly increase of 21 cents for February FOB prices, despite a slight overall price decline [4] - Brazil's northern early planting regions are entering the harvest phase, and favorable rainfall forecasts in the southern regions are beneficial for soybean growth [4] - Argentina has completed 58.6% of its soybean planting, with core areas achieving 60%-80% completion, although high soil moisture has slightly delayed operations [4] - Argentina has announced a reduction in soybean export taxes, lowering rates from 26% to 24% and from 24.5% to 22.5%, which may impact market dynamics [4]