债市在恐慌什么？超长债大幅深跌后反弹

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing significant volatility, with long-term bonds facing a sharp decline despite positive macroeconomic signals, leading to a lack of buying power among traders [1][2][3] - On Monday, the yield on 30-year government bonds rose by 3.6 basis points to over 2.28%, marking a total increase of 7.5 basis points over two trading days, while the 10-year bond yield approached 1.86%, both reaching new highs since the end of September [1][2] - The market sentiment is influenced by fears of panic selling, as traders react to the uncertainty surrounding the repayment prospects of Vanke's bonds, which has led to increased selling pressure on government bonds [3][4] Group 2 - Recent economic data indicates a slowdown in several macroeconomic indicators, with industrial output growth at 4.8% year-on-year, a slight decline from the previous month, and retail sales growth dropping to 1.3%, marking six consecutive months of decline [3] - The bond market's liquidity remains relatively loose, with the overnight repo rate staying below 1.3%, and the central bank has shown a clear intention to support liquidity through operations like reverse repos [3][5] - The widening yield spread between long-term and short-term bonds reflects ongoing selling pressure, particularly on long-term bonds, as institutions adjust their portfolios in response to year-end considerations and changing market conditions [5][6][7]