Broadcom(US:AVGO) 智通财经网·2025-12-16 08:37Core Viewpoint - Broadcom (AVGO.US) and Oracle (ORCL.US) experienced significant stock price fluctuations following their earnings reports, with Broadcom's stock dropping 17% over two days. UBS believes the market reaction was an overreaction and has raised its revenue expectations for Broadcom's AI semiconductor business, projecting revenues to exceed $60 billion in fiscal year 2026, nearly tripling year-over-year. The target price has been adjusted from $472 to $475 [1]. Group 1 - The company disclosed an AI business order backlog of $73 billion, covering an 18-month period, but management indicated that the actual delivery timeline would be closer to 12 months [2]. - In Q4, the total order backlog increased by 50% quarter-over-quarter, with AI semiconductor orders doubling. Excluding a new $11 billion order from Anthropic, the remaining backlog still increased by $20-25 billion, primarily from Google and Meta, not including OpenAI orders [2]. - Broadcom expects the delivery of a $21 billion rack order to Anthropic may extend into fiscal year 2027 due to the preparation progress of power components, emphasizing that Anthropic is the only rack customer in the backlog [2]. Group 2 - The company reaffirmed that the gross margin for its XPU business is approximately 55%, and for its AI networking business, it is around 80%. However, the overall gross margin for the $21 billion revenue from rack products is expected to fall to the 45%-50% range due to the inclusion of resale components [3]. - Broadcom's management expressed confidence that AI business revenues for fiscal year 2026 will exceed current market expectations, raising the revenue forecast for fiscal year 2027 to $135 billion, which is 2% above market consensus [3]. - UBS noted that the $21 billion order from Anthropic may be delivered by the end of fiscal year 2026 and continue into the first half of fiscal year 2027, with a projected delivery of $15 billion in fiscal year 2026 and the remaining $6 billion in fiscal year 2027 [4]. Group 3 - Broadcom's enterprise order backlog increased from $110 billion to $162 billion, with AI-related orders doubling quarter-over-quarter [5]. - The company addressed concerns regarding Google directly interfacing with foundries, stating that such a scenario is unlikely in the next five years, while emphasizing a long-term strategy to diversify its customer base to mitigate concentration risks [5]. - There is a trend of AI labs capturing more market share that was originally expected to be enterprise-level AI markets, as companies increasingly opt for services from providers like OpenAI and Anthropic rather than fine-tuning large models themselves [5]. Group 4 - Broadcom is open to monetizing custom chips through a licensing model if customer demand arises, which may reduce the portion of the average selling price (ASP) related to Broadcom's IP but could result in higher overall gross and operating margins [6]. - The company has achieved control over complete XPU solutions in its HBM business and is willing to adjust based on customer needs [6].