美联储换帅风波引爆信任危机，美债市场慌了！

Core Viewpoint - Concerns regarding the U.S. Treasury market for 2026 are increasing, with the bond market reintroducing risk premium pricing ahead of the new year, despite potential further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The yield curve for U.S. Treasuries has steepened to its widest level in four years, with the 2-10 year spread surpassing the peak from April [2]. - The 10-year term premium, which reflects the extra compensation investors require for holding long-term U.S. Treasuries, has begun to rise again, reaching a three-month high [2]. Group 2: Upcoming Events - Key events in the U.S. Treasury market this week include the release of the latest employment report, October inflation data, and a 20-year Treasury auction, with potential impacts from the Bank of Japan's anticipated interest rate hike [4]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Concerns - Investor anxiety is driven by ongoing worries about potential changes in the Federal Reserve's response mechanism, particularly regarding political pressures affecting its independence [4]. - The uncertainty surrounding long-term inflation and the Fed's policy framework is a key factor pushing up risk premiums, contrasting with the post-2008 quantitative easing era [4]. Group 4: Leadership Speculation - President Trump has narrowed down the candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair to Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett, with market perceptions shifting regarding their likelihood of appointment [6][8]. - Market sentiment suggests that Warsh's potential appointment may provide reassurance, while Hassett is viewed as more politically influenced [8]. Group 5: Policy Implications - Despite recent interest rate cuts, the Fed faces pressure from hawkish regional Fed presidents, which could lead to a more contractionary policy stance [9]. - The Fed's recent decision to actively purchase Treasury securities has raised questions about political interference and its implications for market liquidity and inflation risk premiums [10]. Group 6: Inflation Expectations - Current inflation expectations in the bond market are stabilizing around 2.5% [12].