ETO Markets：沃什崛起如何重塑未来，德银研报拆解鹰派路线

Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of Kevin Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair has significant implications for monetary policy, with a focus on a non-traditional approach of simultaneous interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction, contingent on regulatory reforms [2][3]. Group 1: Personnel Changes and Market Reactions - Kevin Hassett, previously seen as the frontrunner for the position of National Economic Council Director, has seen his odds drop from over 80% to 51% following Trump's endorsement of Kevin Walsh [2]. - Walsh's odds surged from 11% to 44% after Trump's comments, indicating a shift in market sentiment regarding the leadership of the Federal Reserve [2]. Group 2: Walsh's Monetary Philosophy - Walsh's monetary philosophy is characterized by three main oppositions: against quantitative easing (QE), against forward guidance, and against the expansion of the Fed's mission [3]. - He criticizes the Fed's past actions that led to an eightfold increase in its balance sheet over the last fifteen years, arguing that low interest rates have fueled excessive debt in the U.S. [3]. Group 3: Potential Policy Changes - If appointed, Walsh may reduce the focus on QE, reform the Fed's modeling teams, and push Congress to redefine the Fed's dual mandate [3]. - His recent statements suggest a "structurally non-dovish" stance on interest rates, advocating for rate cuts to counteract fiscal tightening and real estate downturns, while insisting that rate cuts must accompany balance sheet reductions [3][4]. Group 4: Regulatory and Legislative Challenges - Deutsche Bank estimates that if reserve requirements decrease by $200 billion to $300 billion, the Fed could reduce its balance sheet to $6.5 trillion without restarting repurchase agreements, allowing for a potential interest rate cut of 100 to 125 basis points [4]. - However, proposed regulatory relaxations by Vice Chair Bowman and Governor Milan require bipartisan legislative support, with a less than 30% chance of implementation before summer 2025 [4]. Group 5: Broader Implications for the Federal Reserve Framework - Walsh's rise could trigger a fundamental overhaul of the Federal Reserve's framework, shifting from a focus on QE and multiple objectives back to a singular focus on price stability [4]. - The ongoing "Kevin" battle highlights the potential for significant changes in monetary policy direction under Trump's renewed influence [4].