Counterpoint预警“缺芯危机”：AI还未吃饱，消费电子恐先跌倒

Group 1 - Global smartphone shipments are expected to decline by 2.1% next year due to memory chip shortages, reversing the anticipated 3.3% growth this year [1] - The average selling price of smartphones is projected to increase by 6.9% next year, influenced by a 10% to 25% rise in overall electronic component costs [1] - The shortage of DRAM chips, crucial for various electronic products, is exacerbated by semiconductor manufacturers prioritizing advanced memory chips for AI applications over basic products [1] Group 2 - Micron Technology plans to stop selling storage products to the PC/DIY market to focus on high-performance AI chip storage, indicating a shift in pricing power from PC/smartphone cycles to AI-driven data centers [3] - SK Hynix has reported that all storage chip orders for next year are sold out, with supply tightness expected to last until 2026, and some forecasts suggest shortages may continue until the end of 2027 [3][6] - Companies like Dell and HP have warned of potential memory chip shortages due to increased demand from AI infrastructure, impacting their pricing strategies [6] Group 3 - Analysts predict the most severe price increases will occur in mid-2026 when new production contracts take effect, with manufacturers facing cost hikes due to long-term agreements signed before the shortages [7] - Apple and Samsung are expected to manage the upcoming challenges better than other companies, particularly smaller Chinese OEMs that lack the flexibility to balance market share and profit margins [7] - Device manufacturers have limited effective strategies to cope with the memory crisis, as chipmakers are tightening supply to maximize profits, driven by AI data center demand [7][8] Group 4 - Companies may attempt to reduce memory specifications in lower-priced models, but this could harm competitiveness, while others might absorb costs temporarily before passing them on to consumers [8] - The smartphone industry faces a critical decision: significantly raise prices or accept compressed profit margins [8]