方正燕翔：2026增长稳、科技强、内需进 价格回升引盈利修复

Core Insights - The success of the "anti-involution" policy in 2026 could lead to a re-inflation, similar to the successful logic of the supply-side structural reforms in 2016-2017, which may result in a rapid recovery of corporate profits and inject strong momentum into the market [1] Economic Outlook - The economic outlook for 2026 is analyzed through three dimensions: stable growth with GDP growth remaining in a stable range, strengthening technology with the "three new" economy's share continuing to rise, and improving domestic demand with significant recovery expected from the low base in 2025 [1] A-Share Market Insights - A-share profitability is highly correlated with PPI, with over 70% of the 5,400 A-share listed companies being manufacturing firms, indicating significant price elasticity [2] - As of October 2025, PPI was down 2.1% year-on-year, with corporate profits in a bottoming phase; if the "anti-involution" policy leads to a rebound in commodity prices, corporate profits could improve significantly, providing strong market support [2] U.S. Market Analysis - Concerns regarding the AI bubble in the U.S. stock market are noted, with the S&P 500 index showing significant valuation risks, as both PE and PB ratios are at the 99th percentile historically; however, the potential adjustment is expected to be relatively mild compared to the 2000 internet bubble [2] Risk Warnings - A key risk identified is the "policy expectation reversal risk," particularly if both PPI and CPI rise unexpectedly, which could conflict with the assumption of continued U.S. interest rate cuts [3] - The year 2026 is critical as it marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with the success of the "anti-involution" policy being pivotal for driving re-inflation and corporate profit recovery, which is essential for market momentum [3]