交银国际：锂电行业“反内卷”趋势延续 建议关注宁德时代

Core Insights - The report from CMB International highlights a robust growth in China's power battery industry in November, driven by strong demand and favorable policies, indicating a clear trend of "anti-involution" in the industry [1][2] Group 1: Industry Performance - In November, the installed capacity of power batteries in mainland China reached 93.5 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.2% and a month-on-month increase of 11.2% [2] - The export of batteries remained strong, with a total export of 32.2 GWh in November, marking a year-on-year increase of 46.5% and a month-on-month increase of 14.1% [2] - Lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 80.5% of the total installed capacity, with a significant year-on-year increase of 40.7% [2] Group 2: Price Trends - The trend of "anti-involution" continues in the lithium battery industry, with prices across the supply chain generally rising due to government initiatives aimed at curbing irrational price competition [3] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has reached 180,000 CNY per ton, while battery-grade lithium carbonate has surpassed 95,500 CNY per ton [3] - Companies like Suzhou Dejia Energy Technology have announced price increases of 15% for their battery products starting December 16, due to rising raw material costs [3] Group 3: Production Plans - December production plans indicate a continued increase in battery production, with domestic companies planning to produce 148.8 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 2.3% [4] - The production of separator materials is expected to rise by 2.6%, while the production of electrolyte is projected to increase by 1.4%, reflecting strong downstream demand [4] - The lithium battery sector has experienced a correction, with the Wande Lithium Battery Index down approximately 12% from its peak, presenting a potential investment opportunity [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with cost and technological advantages, particularly CATL (宁德时代), as the industry fundamentals remain strong and production continues to rise [1][4]