风暴来袭！最强板块将迎巨量抛压？

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing significant volatility, with gold and silver facing potential selling pressure due to upcoming rebalancing in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) [11][20]. Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices recently fell over 1.5%, while Bitcoin dropped below $86,000, and silver saw a significant increase, returning to the $64 mark [1]. - Gold-related ETFs and stocks experienced declines, with the Gold Stock ETF down 4.16%, Gold Stock ETF down 3.91%, and Gold Stock ETF Fund down 3.78% [2]. Group 2: Commodity Index Rebalancing - The BCOM is set to undergo a weight rebalancing in January 2026, which will result in significant selling pressure for gold and silver [11][12]. - The estimated selling pressure for gold is approximately $4.896 billion, while for silver it is around $3.449 billion, totaling nearly $10 billion [20]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Gold has risen from $1,527 to $4,300 over the past seven years, while silver has seen a 107% increase this year, nearing its strongest performance since 1979 [7]. - The market is sensitive to potential selling pressures due to historical high prices, which may lead to short-term declines [20]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data, including non-farm payrolls and CPI, will influence market expectations regarding future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [22][23]. - The labor market's performance is critical, with predictions of a stable unemployment rate at 4.4% and a consensus forming around the potential for further rate cuts if data shows weakness [22].