Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is strengthening against all major currencies ahead of the anticipated interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, driven by a rise in manufacturing confidence and expectations of the highest interest rates since 1995 [1] Group 1: Currency Movements - The yen appreciated by 0.4% against the dollar, reaching 154.68 yen per dollar, with the implied volatility of the dollar/yen exchange rate hitting its highest level since November of the previous year [1] - The strengthening of the yen is linked to the increase in Japan's large manufacturing confidence index, which has reached its strongest level in four years [1] Group 2: Economic Data Impact - Traders are preparing for the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, which is expected to show a weak labor market, with a median forecast predicting an increase of 50,000 jobs and an unemployment rate rising to 4.5%, the highest since 2021 [1] - This employment report is anticipated to provide insights into the actual state of the U.S. labor market and set the tone for interest rate paths in the coming year [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Teppei Ino, head of global market research at MUFG, indicated that if the U.S. labor data is weak, the dollar may face selling pressure, potentially causing the dollar/yen exchange rate to fall below the 154 mark [2]
市场押注日本央行即将加息 日元领涨主要货币
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-16 09:15