今夜非农极具迷惑性，华尔街应该如何解读？

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming non-farm payroll report for October and November is challenging to interpret, with uncertainty surrounding the labor market's condition due to the impact of a government shutdown and delayed employee departures [2][3]. Group 1: Employment Data - The non-farm payroll report will include partial data for October and complete data for November, but the October unemployment rate will not be published due to data collection issues during the government shutdown [2]. - Private sector job growth is expected to be around 40,000 to 50,000 for both October and November, significantly lower than the preliminary September figure of 97,000 [3]. - The average monthly job creation in the private sector for the first nine months of 2025 was 72,000, which is considered weak by historical standards [3]. Group 2: Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest in four years, with predictions for a slight increase to 4.5% in November [4]. - The Labor Statistics Bureau will not release the October unemployment rate, marking the first time since 1948 that a single-month unemployment rate has not been published [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - If the labor market appears to be deteriorating, Wall Street may support further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations for additional cuts in 2026 [5]. - Conversely, if private sector job growth exceeds expectations, the market may remain skeptical due to a lack of other positive labor market indicators [5]. Group 4: Seasonal Hiring - The holiday season typically sees an increase in temporary hiring, which could introduce uncertainty into the employment data [6]. - If the number of temporary hires is lower than usual, seasonal adjustments by the Labor Statistics Bureau may make November's employment situation appear worse than it is [7]. Group 5: Government Employment - The exact reduction in government employment for October is unknown, but estimates suggest that the delayed departure plan from the Trump administration could lead to a decrease of 75,000 to 150,000 federal jobs [8]. - This potential reduction may result in a net decrease in October employment figures, with a possible rebound in November, complicating the understanding of the labor market's true state [8].