2025外卖市场观察：从“价格战”到“价值战”的行业突围

Core Insights - The year 2025 is set to be a pivotal year for the dining and instant retail industry, driven by significant investments from major platforms like JD.com, Meituan, and Alibaba, which have revitalized consumer markets and reshaped price expectations [1] - The industry is undergoing a profound "stress test," as the era of growth driven solely by cash-burning strategies is coming to an end, transitioning towards a "value war" focused on supply chain efficiency and product quality [1] Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a differentiation based on business models rather than brand competition, with brands characterized by "extreme cost-effectiveness, high repurchase rates, and light asset models" showing resilience [3] - A leading tea brand reported a net profit of 2.72 billion yuan and opened nearly 10,000 new stores, demonstrating that low prices do not equate to low quality or losses when strong cost control is in place [3] - Brands with larger store models or higher average transaction values are facing revenue pressures and fluctuations in single-store GMV due to changing traffic rules [3] Economic Challenges - The phenomenon of "scale inefficiency" is emerging, where some small and medium-sized businesses report that despite increased order volumes during subsidy peaks, actual profits do not rise and may even lead to losses [5] - High traffic costs are a burden for merchants, who must bear part of the subsidy costs and delivery fees while enjoying platform traffic [5] User Retention Issues - Users attracted by subsidies are highly price-sensitive, leading to challenges in retention once subsidies decrease [6] - Businesses overly reliant on traffic injections without core competitiveness face risks of significant order declines as seasonal changes and normalized subsidies occur [7] Regulatory Environment - The new "Anti-Unfair Competition Law" introduced in June 2025 imposes restrictions on "selling below cost," signaling a shift towards compliance and order in the industry [9] - Future competition will focus on "ecosystem building" rather than price subsidies, emphasizing the need for platforms to enhance delivery efficiency and empower merchants through digitalization [9] Industry Evolution - The industry is expected to shift from price wars to value wars, focusing on three dimensions: 1. Achieving extreme supply chain efficiency to maintain low prices without relying on subsidies [11] 2. Continuous product innovation to attract and retain consumers through quality [11] 3. Adopting a long-term operational mindset, where businesses with healthy cash flow and sustainable practices are more likely to thrive [11] - The external pressures from the subsidy wars are accelerating the maturation of the industry, filtering out inefficient capacities and highlighting those with core competitiveness [11]