DLS MARKETS预测美元指数：降息预期重燃，DXY转跌？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut has put continued pressure on the US dollar index, leading to discussions about whether the easing policy will extend into 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Factors Driving Dollar Movement - Weak signals from the labor market, uncertainty regarding the Fed's pause or continuation of rate cuts, and yield volatility are contributing to a bearish outlook for the dollar [1][2] - The dollar's performance is characterized by a tug-of-war rather than a clear trend, with market confidence wavering [5][9] Group 2: Labor Market Signals - A significant increase in initial jobless claims has sparked debate over whether the labor market's weakness is seasonal noise or a substantive signal, undermining confidence in the US economy's growth relative to the global economy [7][11] Group 3: Bond Market Anxiety - The bond market is increasingly focused on policy credibility and long-term interest rate risks, leading to defensive trading in the dollar when yields lack directional guidance [8][9] Group 4: Technical Outlook - The dollar index is expected to remain under pressure unless it can break through key resistance levels, with recent price movements indicating a corrective adjustment rather than a strong upward trend [12][15] - A bullish scenario for the dollar would require significant positive surprises in non-farm payroll data and CPI, alongside stabilization in US Treasury yields [17] Group 5: Bearish Scenario - The prevailing bearish outlook suggests that weak non-farm payroll data or rising unemployment rates, along with soft CPI readings, could reinforce easing expectations and lead to further declines in the dollar index [20]