美联储三连降息白忙活！企业不敢投百姓不敢花，美国要陷僵局？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a third interest rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75% since September [1] - Despite the rate cut, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased from 4.09% to 4.18% in December, contrary to the typical expectation that rate cuts would lower yields [2] - The job market is under significant pressure, with a loss of 32,000 private sector jobs in November and an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.0% at the beginning of the year to 4.4% by September, surpassing the long-term sustainable level of 4.2% [4] Group 2 - Core PCE, the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, decreased slightly from 2.83% in September to 2.8% in November, while the "super core inflation" related to service industries remains high at 3.3% [6] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with interest payments projected to reach $1.4 trillion in 2025, equating to $2 million in interest every minute [9] - A 1% rate cut could save nearly $400 billion in interest payments, highlighting the financial implications of interest rate decisions [11] Group 3 - The internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding the rate cut was evident, with a 9-3 vote, indicating significant disagreement on the approach to monetary policy [14] - The rise of AI in the economy presents both opportunities and risks, potentially leading to job losses while also driving investment [16] - Market expectations for inflation remain high, with the implied inflation rate for 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) above 2% since 2021, currently around 2.26% [18] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's recent actions, including the purchase of $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds, suggest a reliance on additional liquidity measures, which some analysts view as a form of "quasi-quantitative easing" [20] - There is a growing concern that if inflation rebounds, the Federal Reserve may be forced to reverse course and raise interest rates, leading to potential volatility in stock and bond markets [20] - The overall economic policy appears to be reactive rather than proactive, with the potential for future interest rate changes to create significant market disruptions [22]