IC外汇平台：美联储鸽派+全球风险托底，黄金回调仍难改涨势？

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices remain stable near a key breakout area despite a brief pullback, supported by the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which enhance safe-haven demand [1][3][8] Group 1: Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut marks the third reduction since 2025, with Chairman Powell indicating a continued accommodative stance, boosting expectations for low rates to persist until 2026 [3] - The dovish shift from the Fed has lowered the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading investors to favor metal assets amid declining yields [3][8] - Recent comments from Fed officials reinforce dovish expectations, with New York Fed President John Williams stating that the current policy is appropriate as the economy progresses towards 2026 [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical developments, including hints of a potential peace agreement regarding Ukraine, may temporarily ease safe-haven demand, although unresolved border disputes and security concerns continue to support gold demand [3][8] - The market sentiment remains influenced by geopolitical uncertainties, which contribute to the overall bullish outlook for gold [1][3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold has formed a third arc bottom within a sustained upward channel, indicating a consolidation phase within a broader bullish trend [4][7] - The current price action suggests that if gold successfully breaks through the key resistance level, it could trigger a new wave of upward momentum, with potential targets around $4900 if the $4350-$4400 range is surpassed [7][8] - The technical outlook remains optimistic as long as prices stay above the support level near $4100 [7]