Nvidia(US:NVDA) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-16 10:19Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's recent decision to allow NVIDIA to export H200 chips to China, while imposing a 25% profit-sharing clause, is seen as a strategic maneuver rather than a genuine policy shift, aimed at re-establishing market dependence on NVIDIA's ecosystem while simultaneously extracting profits from Chinese enterprises [1]. Group 1: U.S. Policy and Market Dynamics - The approval of H200 chips is perceived as a "flexible adjustment" in U.S. policy towards China, but it is fundamentally a tactic to maintain technological dominance and control [1]. - Analysts estimate that this business could generate $10 billion in revenue for NVIDIA, indicating the financial stakes involved [1]. - The U.S. government is banking on the assumption that Chinese companies, having been restricted from high-end computing chips for years, will be eager to replenish their supplies [1]. Group 2: Chinese Response and Strategic Moves - In response to the U.S. decision, China has introduced a policy that prioritizes the procurement of domestic AI chips, signaling a shift towards self-reliance in critical technology sectors [5]. - The inclusion of domestic AI chips in government procurement lists indicates a systematic transition towards self-developed technology across various industries, including finance and telecommunications [5]. - This move is seen as a proactive strategy to counter U.S. attempts to re-establish market ties through the H200 chip offering [5]. Group 3: Challenges and Transition to Domestic Chips - Despite the push for domestic chip adoption, Chinese companies face significant challenges, including the need to rewrite software to be compatible with local chip architectures, which has led to instances of unused domestic hardware [6]. - Current domestic AI chips are reported to have lower energy efficiency compared to NVIDIA's high-end products, resulting in higher operational costs [6]. - The Chinese government is expected to intervene with policies to support the transition, including energy subsidies and preferential procurement, to facilitate the development of a self-sustaining chip ecosystem [6]. Group 4: Long-term Implications for the Semiconductor Industry - NVIDIA's potential loss of market share in China reflects a broader trend of diminishing ecological ties due to U.S. export controls, as Chinese engineers and systems gradually shift towards domestic platforms [7]. - The loss of ecological stickiness is critical for semiconductor companies, as it undermines the value of individual chip products without a robust ecosystem [8]. - The current situation illustrates a significant shift in strategy for China, moving towards a path of technological independence despite the inherent challenges, which may reshape the future of technology and market sovereignty [8].