“史上最长”黑五和跨境电商这一年：野蛮生长的日子过去了

Core Insights - The Black Friday shopping event has evolved significantly, with online sales reaching $11.8 billion in the U.S., marking a 9.1% increase from 2024 and setting a new record [1] - The promotional period has extended beyond a single day, lasting several weeks, leading to consumer fatigue and a dilution of the event's traditional significance [1] - Intense competition among e-commerce platforms, particularly from Chinese sellers, is reshaping consumer behavior and decision-making [1] Group 1: Promotional Strategies - The promotional period for Black Friday has been extended, with platforms like Temu and TikTok Shop starting their sales as early as October, resulting in a total promotional duration of up to 51 days [2] - Amazon has also adjusted its Black Friday schedule to compete, announcing a 12-day promotional period from November 20 to December 1, which is its longest ever [2] - The extended promotional periods have led to record sales for platforms, with TikTok Shop achieving over $500 million in GMV in just four days [2] Group 2: Seller Experiences - Despite the platforms' success, many sellers report disappointing sales, with some describing this season as the "worst ever" [3] - Sellers are experiencing fatigue due to the increased frequency and duration of promotions, leading to a decline in consumer engagement [3] - The profitability of sales is declining, with sellers having to offer deeper discounts, sometimes between 40% to 99%, to remain competitive [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is shifting, with larger sellers benefiting from economies of scale while smaller sellers struggle to keep up [5][6] - The rising costs of advertising and compliance are squeezing profit margins, making it difficult for smaller sellers to sustain operations [8][9] - The overall investment-to-return ratio is deteriorating, with many sellers finding that their sales do not cover the increased costs associated with promotions and compliance [8][14] Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The cross-border e-commerce industry is facing increased regulatory scrutiny, with changes in tax compliance and customs regulations impacting operations [11][13] - Sellers are required to adapt to new compliance standards, which can significantly increase operational costs [12][13] - The evolving regulatory landscape is expected to lead to a consolidation in the industry, favoring compliant and well-capitalized sellers [14][16]