存储巨头掀桌，SK 海力士的新杀招

Core Insights - The supply of NAND flash wafers is tightening, with some products seeing contract price increases of over 60% in November, significantly raising the material costs for consumer electronics and leading to reduced shipments of smartphones, laptops, and gaming consoles [1] - The demand for NAND flash is being driven by AI infrastructure, with the total revenue of the top five NAND flash suppliers increasing by 16.5% quarter-over-quarter, approaching $17.1 billion [1] - SK Hynix has announced a strategic vision to become a "full-line AI storage creator" at the SKAI Summit 2025, detailing a product roadmap from 2026 to 2031 [1] Group 1: SK Hynix's Ambitions in AI - SK Hynix is focusing on three main areas: Custom HBM, AI DRAM, and AI NAND [3] - In the HBM segment, SK Hynix plans to launch HBM4 16-layer stacked products and custom HBM solutions starting with HBM4E, which will significantly reduce interface power consumption [3][4] - The company aims to fully enter the HBM5 generation by 2029-2031, with plans for next-generation GDDR7, DDR6, and 3D DRAM, as well as NAND products with over 400 layers [3] Group 2: Custom HBM Developments - SK Hynix is supplying HBM for Google's seventh-generation TPU, with a projected market share of 56.6% in 2025 [6] - The shift towards custom HBM is seen as a key competitive factor, with major tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla requesting custom HBM solutions [8] - The market is transitioning from general-purpose products to customized solutions based on client specifications, starting with HBM4e [9] Group 3: AI DRAM Innovations - Capital expenditure for DRAM is expected to reach $53.7 billion in 2025, growing to $61.3 billion in 2026, a year-on-year increase of approximately 14% [12] - SK Hynix is focusing on three directions for AI DRAM: optimization, breakthrough technologies to overcome the "memory wall," and expansion into new use cases beyond data centers [16][19] - The MRDIMM technology is highlighted for its efficiency improvements, with performance metrics showing significant gains over traditional DRAM solutions [15] Group 4: AI NAND Strategies - Capital expenditure for NAND Flash is projected at $21.1 billion in 2025, with a slight increase to $22.2 billion in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 5% [19] - SK Hynix is developing AI NAND solutions focused on performance, bandwidth, and density, with plans to introduce new architectures and technologies by 2026 [19][20] - The collaboration with SanDisk on HBF technology aims to enhance bandwidth and meet the growing demands for high-performance storage solutions [20] Group 5: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The storage market is entering a new upward cycle, with recent price increases for new devices ranging from 100 to 300 yuan, indicating a trend of further price hikes [21] - The structural and long-term shortages driven by AI applications are exceeding expectations, necessitating a rapid upgrade in storage capabilities to keep pace with computational advancements [21][22] - The integration of storage and AI is expected to deepen, with increasing demands for bandwidth and capacity across various applications [22]