回旋镖，AI或将导致手机的内存“反向升级”

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in DRAM memory prices has created challenges for both PC gamers and smartphone users, with contract prices rising by 171% year-on-year as of Q3 2025, surpassing the increase in gold prices, making it one of the best-performing investment products of the year [1] Group 1: Memory Price Impact - The rising memory prices are causing OEMs to face increasing cost pressures, with the share of memory in the overall BOM (Bill of Materials) expected to rise significantly by Q1 2026 [2] - Smartphone manufacturers are likely to make tough decisions between sacrificing shipment volumes, raising prices, or reducing specifications due to the high memory costs [3] Group 2: Changes in Smartphone Memory Specifications - Mid-range smartphones are expected to shift from 12GB to 6GB and 8GB configurations, while entry-level models may drop to 4GB, abandoning the 8GB standard [3] - The reduction in memory specifications could lead to a significant decline in user experience, as larger memory allows for more apps to run simultaneously, which is increasingly important in a mobile internet-driven environment [4] Group 3: AI and Memory Requirements - The trend of reducing memory capacity in smartphones could limit the performance of AI applications, as many current apps are developed with a minimum of 6GB memory in mind [6] - Entry-level smartphones with only 4GB of memory will struggle to support on-device AI functionalities, which require substantial memory and bandwidth for effective operation [8] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The shift towards AI in smartphones is seen as a potential game-changer for market competition, but the rising memory prices and subsequent reduction in specifications may alienate users [9] - The current memory price surge is largely driven by the demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), which has led suppliers to prioritize HBM production over traditional DRAM, disrupting the supply-demand balance [8]