果下科技（02655.HK）上市首日“狂飙”，为何毛利率却“一路下滑”？

Core Viewpoint - Guoxia Technology (02655.HK), a supplier of energy storage system solutions, made a strong debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with its stock price soaring 117.9% on the first day of trading [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 142 million yuan in 2022 to 1.026 billion yuan in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 168.9% [2]. - In the first half of 2025, revenue reached 691 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 663% [2]. - The company's gross margin has significantly declined from 25.1% in 2022 to 15.1% in 2024, further dropping to 12.5% in the first half of 2025 [2]. - Net profit margin decreased from 17.1% in 2022 to 0.8% in the first half of 2025, indicating a substantial compression of profit margins [2]. Business Structure and Market Position - The revenue structure is shifting from European residential energy storage to a focus on large-scale energy storage systems in the domestic Chinese market, with large-scale storage revenue share increasing from 12.2% in 2022 to 74.2% in the first half of 2025 [3]. - Guoxia Technology has become the eighth largest Chinese energy storage system supplier globally by 2024, according to industry reports [2]. Customer Dependency and Financial Risks - The company faces significant customer dependency risks, with the largest customer, Zhongchuang Innovation, accounting for 41.7% of revenue in the first half of 2025 [3]. - The relationship with Zhongchuang Innovation raises concerns about business independence and pricing fairness due to its role as both a major customer and a shareholder [3]. - Cash flow pressures are evident, with trade receivables increasing from 41.59 million yuan at the end of 2022 to 952 million yuan by June 2025, and accounts receivable turnover days extending from 56.7 days to 198 days [3]. - The company's operating cash flow turned negative in the first half of 2025, with a net outflow of 205 million yuan [3]. Research and Development - Guoxia Technology's R&D expenditure accounted for only 2.4% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, which is significantly lower than the industry median of 5.23% among listed energy storage companies in the A-share market [4]. - The adequacy of current R&D investment to support technological leadership and long-term competitiveness remains to be seen [4].