电芯拿不到，毛利保不住：二线工商业储能厂商大困局

Core Viewpoint - The commercial energy storage industry is experiencing a downturn characterized by significant policy changes and intense price competition, leading to a challenging environment for second-tier manufacturers [2][10][26]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The commercial energy storage sector is described as "high opening, low going" for 2025, primarily due to fluctuating policies that have drastically reduced profit margins [2][26]. - In Jiangsu, the peak-valley price difference has decreased by over 35%, resulting in a 47% drop in daily energy revenue from 2.44 yuan/kWh to 1.298 yuan/kWh [2][3]. - The internal competition among second-tier manufacturers has intensified, with many resorting to unsustainable price cuts to secure orders, leading to a situation where they lack the qualification to compete effectively [12][13]. Group 2: Financial Implications - A specific energy storage company's internal rate of return (IRR) has plummeted from 28.1% to 15%, with the payback period extending from approximately 3 years to 5 years [3]. - The price of commercial energy storage products has fallen from 1.5 yuan/Wh to 0.478 yuan/Wh, a decline of 65.9%, resulting in profit margins for second-tier manufacturers dropping to 10-12% [18][26]. - The financial strain is evident as many second-tier firms struggle to maintain operations, with some employees facing job insecurity and reduced salaries [17][18]. Group 3: Systemic Issues - Second-tier manufacturers are caught in a systemic dilemma, facing price wars and a lack of access to quality projects, which are predominantly controlled by top-tier companies [19][20]. - The market for battery cells is characterized by a "dual pricing" phenomenon, where larger firms secure lower prices while smaller firms face inflated costs and longer delivery times [19][20]. - Efforts to pivot towards project development or international expansion have proven ineffective, as these strategies require resources and expertise that many second-tier firms lack [20][21][22]. Group 4: Potential Solutions - Some companies are attempting to innovate by leveraging AI technology to improve operational efficiency and offer new services, but these advancements are often beyond the reach of smaller firms [24][25]. - The industry is witnessing a divide where only a few companies are managing to navigate the challenges, while the majority of second-tier players continue to struggle [24][26]. - The overall sentiment in the industry suggests that while 2023 is termed the "year of energy storage," the benefits are not extending to smaller players, who may need to reassess their value propositions in a rapidly evolving market [26].