“坚定持有AI赢家，别轮换”！摩根大通硬件团队：2026年“网络”增长将超越“算力”

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's hardware team signals that investors should hold onto AI winner stocks rather than making large-scale rotations, emphasizing a structural shift where the "network infrastructure" sector is expected to outpace "compute" growth by 2026 [1][2] - The team estimates that AI-related companies currently have a valuation premium of only 26%, indicating that investor expectations for AI-driven profit growth are overly conservative, with actual growth projected to accelerate by 60%-80% [1][5] Investment Strategy - Following recent pullbacks, the team suggests that now is a good time to reassess AI investment portfolios, advocating for a "hold" strategy rather than a "full rotation" [2] Valuation and Growth Projections - AI business is expected to account for approximately 40% of revenue for AI-related companies by 2026, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of about 35 times, suggesting that the market anticipates sustainable capital expenditure growth of only 30%, significantly lower than the projected 70% growth for 2024-2025 [5] - Early company outlooks indicate that AI will lead to an average revenue growth increase of 400 basis points and an average profit growth increase of 600 basis points, translating to a growth acceleration of nearly 60%-80% for industries previously thought to have only mid-single-digit growth [7] Structural Shift in Growth - A key viewpoint is that the growth of the network infrastructure sector is set to surpass compute growth, redefining the AI investment landscape [8] - AI switch revenue is projected to grow by 48% in 2026, 29% in 2027, and 25% in 2028, compared to overall data center switch industry growth rates of 23%, 19%, and 18% respectively, indicating that AI is becoming the primary growth driver in the switch industry [8] Capital Expenditure Trends - With the expansion of GPU clusters, the revenue from AI data center switches is expected to rise from 4% of the total switch market in 2022 to 57% by 2027, driven by larger cluster demands and the urgent need for optimized GPU utilization [10] - The optical interconnect market is expected to grow by 40% to $20 billion by 2026, maintaining a compound annual growth rate of 20% before 2030, while the telecom and data center interconnect market is projected to grow by about 15% to $5 billion by 2026 [12] Recommended Stocks - Morgan Stanley places network-related companies at a high ranking in their recommendations, with Arista Networks and Amphenol as top picks, followed by Celestica, Coherent, and Lumentum [16] Supply Chain Considerations - Despite the optimistic outlook, the team highlights supply chain constraints as a key issue for 2026, with bottlenecks expected in HBM inventory, CoWoS packaging, and optical component capacity [17] - The team maintains a positive outlook on AI infrastructure investment, forecasting that capital expenditures for large-scale vendors will exceed $150 billion in 2026, marking a historical high [17]