美银调查显示投资者对2026年满怀乐观

Core Insights - Asset management managers are entering the new year with high confidence across various sectors, including economic growth, stocks, and commodities [1][3] - Investor sentiment, measured by cash holdings, stock allocation, and global growth expectations, rose to 7.4 out of 10 in December, marking the most optimistic survey result in four and a half years [1][3] - The combined holdings of stocks and commodities reached the highest level since February 2022, following significant global interest rate increases due to inflation shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic [1][3] Investor Sentiment - Approximately 57% of respondents expect the economy to achieve a "soft landing," with only 3% predicting a "hard landing," the lowest percentage in two and a half years [2][4] - The cash holding ratio among investors decreased from 3.7% to 3.3%, setting a new historical low [2][4] - Concerns regarding the valuation of U.S. tech stocks persist, with 14% of respondents believing corporate capital expenditures are excessive, although this is down from a historical high of 20% [2][4] Market Predictions - The MSCI Global Index is projected to rise nearly 20% by 2025, achieving double-digit growth for the third consecutive year, driven by global central bank rate cuts and strong economic growth [4] - Major banks, including Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Citigroup, predict that the U.S. stock market will see gains exceeding 10% in 2026 [2][4] - Historical instances of similarly high optimism have occurred only eight times since the beginning of the century, including post-global financial crisis recovery and the post-COVID-19 boom [1][4]