世行预测柬埔寨2025年经济增长率将放缓至4.8%

Economic Outlook - Cambodia's economic growth rate is projected to slow down to 4.8% in 2025, down from 6% in 2024 [1] - Multiple internal and external shocks, including a weak real estate sector, border disputes with Thailand, and increased U.S. tariffs, are significantly pressuring economic activity [1] Real Estate and Trade - The ongoing downturn in the real estate market continues to suppress domestic demand and the construction sector's vitality [1] - Tensions at the Cambodia-Thailand border disrupt bilateral trade and have a cascading impact on the labor market and tourism [1] - Starting August 1, 2025, the U.S. will impose a 19% tariff on all imports from Cambodia, further exacerbating external uncertainties [1] Resilience and Investment - Despite economic pressures, Cambodia shows some resilience, with healthy international reserves capable of covering approximately 7.5 months of import needs [2] - The public debt level is low, at about 26% of GDP, indicating good debt sustainability [2] - The average inflation rate for 2025 is expected to remain moderate at 2.7%, not significantly dragging down the economy [2] - In the first half of 2025, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows reached $2.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%, effectively offsetting some negative impacts from external imbalances [2]