【南篱/黄金】2025年第十一次非农

Group A: ETF Holdings - Since November, there has been a significant divergence in ETF holdings, with 14 instances of increases and 10 instances of decreases over two months. Increases tend to occur in dense clusters, while decreases are sporadic [3][5] - The total inventory and changes in holdings for various assets, including gold and other commodities, indicate a fluctuating market sentiment, with notable increases and decreases in value [4] Group B: Speculative Sentiment Report - The speculative sentiment report has stabilized around a 50-50 split, indicating clear market preferences between bullish and bearish positions. There is a lack of strong bullish positions, with frequent downward pressures observed [6][8] Group C: Fundamental Analysis Interest Rate Decision - The December interest rate decision is expected to reflect a dovish rate cut alongside hawkish commentary, with projections indicating potential rate cuts in 2026 and 2027. However, skepticism exists regarding the likelihood of these cuts occurring, especially with the impending departure of the current Fed Chair [9][10] - Market sentiment suggests that the focus will remain on the actual outcomes of Fed policies rather than the motivations of its officials [10] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions are influencing market dynamics, particularly regarding negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine. Disagreements over territorial issues remain significant, impacting market stability [11] Non-Farm Payroll Analysis - Recent employment data shows improvement, but rising unemployment rates raise concerns about the authenticity of the data. The market is expected to focus more on unemployment rates moving forward [12][14] Group D: December Layout - Following a triangle breakout, the market is showing signs of upward momentum, with a focus on previous highs during the upcoming non-farm payroll report. The outcome of this report will be crucial for determining market direction [17][18]